Ouch,Ceiling is quite hard !!!

Morning Guys,

Beautiful start to our week here in Builth Wells. The sun is out and (touch wood) it will remain out for the rest of today and the week for that matter. The Welsh Show is taking place in our sleep town and boy has the population swelled over the past couple of days. This place turns into a mad house for the next 4 days… Population before the show, 1000 during the show 200 000 plus apparently (this is split over 4 days mind you). NUTS!!!

EURUSD Monday Intra Day Analysis

Anyway, back to the chart. Today I’m looking at EURUSD. On a Intra Day chart we have loads of Resistance above us (see charts attached below of 1hr & 15min).The Daily Trend is still Bullish, but on a smaller time frame – more undeceive.

EURUSD Monday Intra Day 15min Chart

The Pair needs to break above 14175 to be Long today.  With 1st target at 1423, 2nd target at 1429 to look at. Alternatively, if this fails to break above this ceiling area at 14175, then going short to 1st target atr 1412,2nd target 1407 & 3rd target at 1400.

Please ensure that you do your own analysis prior to entering into any trades.

Have a brilliant day and remember to trade Serenely

Forex Market Update for EURUSD,GBPUSD,AUDUSD,USDCHF – On Daily Chart Time Frame

Morning All,

Just a heads up on the where we stand on a number of  currency pairs this morning. I’ve got a chart below showing us 4 Forex Currency pairs. They are the EURUSD,GBPUSD,AUDUSD,USDCHF.

Lets start off with the TOP LEFT hand-side, the EURUSD.

The Major Trend is Bullish. The Minor Trend is Bearish. We have seen the Price fade after it posted news Highs for the 1st time since late December 2008 (14535 area). Since then we have seen another attempt at this previous high fade. In doing so it had formed in some cases a Head and shoulder reversal up until mid week last. It seems to be forming more of a squeeze pattern.

Now the Pair has found support for a number of days around a Monthly Pivot point at 13850. IF this Pair can find support over the coming days around this point we could see EUR try and test the previous HIGH posted earlier this month. If EUR fails to find support at this Major Trend/Pivot point, we would need to see a confirmation bearish candlestick bar CLOSE below this trend line first. Very Important !!! Market must tip it’s hand>You want the market to give you a valid sign that we could see momentum favouring the BEARS. If you look at the RSI – notice how it has traded BELOW 50% line. Saying that we have seen RSI strengthen slightly in the past couple of days. Could this be a sign that the BULLS are coming back into play and we could see another push for the previous HIGH made earlier this month. Let’s wait and see if this Pair can find STRONG SUPPORT at present area – Need to see a Bullish  candlestick pattern to confirm that momentum change.

Top Right-hand-side – GBPUSD

Here again we see GBP Major Trend – BULLISH, Minor Trend – BEARISH. Here again we have seen GBP retrace somewhat over he past couple of weeks after posting Highs not seen since late October 2008. The Pair has formed a beautiful CUP formation. The last couple of days we have seen price fail to break above 1666 which happens to be Resistance 1 on  Monthly Pivot. Notice how The RSI has posted lower highs as price has been moving sideways recently – Loss of Momentum ??? With this sideways momentum – it has formed another squeeze pattern. The Pair is trading close to the Major Trend -line. If we are to see GBP test those highs posted earlier this month we would need confirmation in Price – either an strong candlestick engulfing pattern or a Hammer – or Bullish harami pattern. Some sign to let us know – HEADS UP – we have a direction confirmation. Looking at our Indicator – RSI has just broken through the 50% line. Negative sign. IF we see a CLOSE BELOW this MAJOR trend-line , then this will indicate to us the BULLS have left the party and the BEAR have arrived to take over. GOT TO HAVE A CONFIRMATION SIGNAL FIRST BEFORE WE TAKE A POSITION.

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Bottom Left handside – USDCHF

We have seen USD loss ground to the CHF over the last couple of months BUT we have seen USD  test a strong support line (going back to late part of December 2008) recently and since then pullback to around a resistance area now which is a Monthly Pivot (10920). For the past week USD has battled to break about this area and like the previous two currency pairs form a squeeze. Now RSI  has been trading above the 50% for a number of days -BUT there is not alot of conviction in the signal provided that we have momentum to the upside. USD to be BULLISH would need to CLOSE ABOVE that strong resistance line of 10920 first before we can genuinely see more movement to the upside.

Bottom Right handside – AUDUSD

This brings me to the last chart I’ll be discussing this morning AUDUSD pair. Now with this pair we have seen AUD gain some fair ground over the USD since mid March of this year. Price broke above 50MA and kept going. Right up until now where it has reached a high which is long term support/resistance  posted back in September 2008. Like the other Pairs I spoke about this too we have seen a ‘breather’ take place – we have seen all 4 pairs make up some decent ground in the past months against the DOLLAR. Extend Major Trend, have seen AUD stalled around the 828o area. Another squeeze setup has presented itself. Have we seen the Investors taking a breather and taking profits after this long Bull run !?!?! Could we see the AUD continue in the same direction it started earlier this year. In this case AUD would have to find support at 7767 ( Pivot point). A break above the previous High at 8828 would be preferable – BUT we can still make some decent money ‘intra day’ between now and then – as long as we have valid confirmation that it is going in your favour. RSI is approaching 30% line – over sold indication ?? HEADS UP !!!

I hope this has been of help to some of you. Keep your trading style simple. Build a picture as you study your charts !! This way you are likely to make less mistakes long term !!! Simplicity is Key in trading – Trade what the Charts is telling you……..

Until next time – Trade Serenely

Cable – bounced off R1 and down it went

Hi Everyone,

The other great trade was Cable, saw it bounce off the R1 level, and price made a lower high - waited for the price to take out the momentum low, went in at 1.696619 and placed my stop 35.8 pips away (above the momentum high and the R1 level).

Target was the Pivot Point at 1.6491 – 135 pips away.

Good luck trading.

TB