Ouch,Ceiling is quite hard !!!

Morning Guys,

Beautiful start to our week here in Builth Wells. The sun is out and (touch wood) it will remain out for the rest of today and the week for that matter. The Welsh Show is taking place in our sleep town and boy has the population swelled over the past couple of days. This place turns into a mad house for the next 4 days… Population before the show, 1000 during the show 200 000 plus apparently (this is split over 4 days mind you). NUTS!!!

EURUSD Monday Intra Day Analysis

Anyway, back to the chart. Today I’m looking at EURUSD. On a Intra Day chart we have loads of Resistance above us (see charts attached below of 1hr & 15min).The Daily Trend is still Bullish, but on a smaller time frame – more undeceive.

EURUSD Monday Intra Day 15min Chart

The Pair needs to break above 14175 to be Long today.  With 1st target at 1423, 2nd target at 1429 to look at. Alternatively, if this fails to break above this ceiling area at 14175, then going short to 1st target atr 1412,2nd target 1407 & 3rd target at 1400.

Please ensure that you do your own analysis prior to entering into any trades.

Have a brilliant day and remember to trade Serenely

EURUSD – Squeeze Pattern on DAILY CHART

Morning Guys,

EURUSD squeeze pattern formation. This has been forming over the past week or so. Price has consolidated after a BULLISH since mid April of this year. The Pair has pulled back to the 50ma (light blue line on chart).RSI has moved back over the 50% line. The pair needs to be trading ABOVE 14200 to be a potential LONG signal OR trading BELOW 13825 to consider going SHORT.

EUR Squeeze Pattern - Dail Chart

Please ensure that you are doing your own analysis prior to trading at any time.  It is very important to have good trading skills BUT it is paramount that you have BETTER money management rules to compliment your trading style.

Here’s to a great trading day

Serene Education

RSI – Overbought setup on 5 Day Chart – GBPUSD

Hi Folks,

Just wanted to bring to your attention how one could use the RSI to get a better indication of when we are LIKELY/PROBABILITY of seeing a change in market sentiment prior to the PRICE movement taking place.

This can be very beneficial when trying to decipher when it is a good time to either get into a position or when to get out of one. Have a look at the chart posted below on GBPUSD on a 5 Day Chart. Now you could use this on any time frame. Don’t have to only use it on Longer time frames BUT I find it a lot better to use it this way to give me an outlook of what is likely to occur over the next couple of days/weeks….

Notice how before we saw GBPUSD rally in the early part of this year ( number 1 on chart )  how the RSI was giving is a sign that it was going from an OVERSOLD situation to a favorable BUY signal while the PAIR was still in a down turn (Divergence signal).We could then say that we could have put in an order to GO LONG when price closed above the squeeze pattern(no 2) formation around March of this year (Marked in yellow on chart).

The same scenario is occurring now. Notice how we have gone into an OVER BOUGHT situation ( no 3 on chart ). Price has closed above the 200 ema line. We have seen the price fail to go higher than 1.70 in the past couple of weeks. RSI in the meantime in this consolidation has dropped below the 70% line – Convergence signal !!With the PAIR breaking through the 200 ema for the 1st time since Jan 2008…. we could very well see a re tracement taking place to around the 1.60 mark.So, could we see this PAIR trade lower over the course of the next couple of days to a figure of around 1.60 with a potential for more upside after this ???!!

RSI - How to use it to find Convergence & Divergence

Hope this has helped you out in any way. Please ensure that you do your ‘homework’ before placing any trades. It is vital that you have a check list handy and that you follow it !!!

Also be aware that Serene Education has a FREE 5 DAY MINI TRADING COURSE for those of you who would like an introduction into trading….

Until next time !!! Trade Serenely

Ways to follow Serene Education

Hi Everyone,

I’m getting a lot of people requesting ways to be able to follow Serene Education without having to fumble around with loads of web addresses etc. Well I’ve put together a site whereby you can choose your preferred method of following us. If you would prefer to receive and EMAIL relating to any updates on our blog, updates on any special offers or dates relating to our next ‘Live with Trader’ events, you can do that. If you would prefer to have an ICON FOR BOOK MARK TAB that you can add to your preferred WEB BROWSER.

All you need to do is click on it and will you all the updates from our blog site and more…. This is the link Click on the following icon

'It is in your moments of decision that your destiny is shaped.' Anthony Robbins

Click on the Serene Education Icon Click on the Serene Education Icon I would like to take the opportunity to applaud those how registered with us and took us up on our FREE 5 Day Mini course on trading offer. I trust it helped each and everyone of you learn something new and beneficial that you can apply in your day to day market trading.

Don’t forget you can also keep in touch with our TEAM OF TRADERS on Twitter at all times.

citytrader618 , Edutrader_01 , serene_4xchick , SereneEducation , TradingBabe

Until next time, Trade Serenely

Update on GBPUSD Pair – Bears take the reins !?!?!

Morning All,

Trust everyone had a pleasant weekend. To all our American follower, hope you all had a fantastic Independence Day on Saturday. Marks were very quite on Friday I wonder what this week has in store for us.

Looking at Cable (GBPUSD), we have seen the PAIR unable to break higher (1670 level) last week. Our Major UPTREND line came into play last week, We saw Price CLOSE below the trend-line and importantly close below this line. MACD is showing NEGATIVE, and RSI is telling me that the BEARS are in the driving seat. Price has also opened BELOW my Daily Pivot point. If by the end of today this is still trading below this line, then we should be looking at the Pair trading towards the next pivot line around 1.600 area which funny enough is where our 50 EMA line is (RED LINE) My strategy has informed me that there is a SELL signal today.

GBPUSD - Daily Setup Chart

This anaylsis is on a DAILY TIME FRAME. All of you who are looking to trade this PAIR intraday – Please make sure that you do your homework and look at 4hr/1hr/15min time frames to look for possible entry/exit positions

Here’s to a great day on the Markets today…. Trade Serenely !!!

Chris

PS- Don’t forget to follow Serene Traders on Twitter for up to min updates on trades during the course of the day. They are

serene_4xchick

TradingBabe

Edutrader

Citytrader618

GBP news out at 9:30am GMT – Net Lending to Individuals m/m

GBP figures out a t9:30am GMT - Net Lending to Individuals m/m

EUR/CHF Video Update – Reason behind the large movements seen on this pair

Forex Market Update for EURUSD,GBPUSD,AUDUSD,USDCHF – On Daily Chart Time Frame

Morning All,

Just a heads up on the where we stand on a number of  currency pairs this morning. I’ve got a chart below showing us 4 Forex Currency pairs. They are the EURUSD,GBPUSD,AUDUSD,USDCHF.

Lets start off with the TOP LEFT hand-side, the EURUSD.

The Major Trend is Bullish. The Minor Trend is Bearish. We have seen the Price fade after it posted news Highs for the 1st time since late December 2008 (14535 area). Since then we have seen another attempt at this previous high fade. In doing so it had formed in some cases a Head and shoulder reversal up until mid week last. It seems to be forming more of a squeeze pattern.

Now the Pair has found support for a number of days around a Monthly Pivot point at 13850. IF this Pair can find support over the coming days around this point we could see EUR try and test the previous HIGH posted earlier this month. If EUR fails to find support at this Major Trend/Pivot point, we would need to see a confirmation bearish candlestick bar CLOSE below this trend line first. Very Important !!! Market must tip it’s hand>You want the market to give you a valid sign that we could see momentum favouring the BEARS. If you look at the RSI – notice how it has traded BELOW 50% line. Saying that we have seen RSI strengthen slightly in the past couple of days. Could this be a sign that the BULLS are coming back into play and we could see another push for the previous HIGH made earlier this month. Let’s wait and see if this Pair can find STRONG SUPPORT at present area – Need to see a Bullish  candlestick pattern to confirm that momentum change.

Top Right-hand-side – GBPUSD

Here again we see GBP Major Trend – BULLISH, Minor Trend – BEARISH. Here again we have seen GBP retrace somewhat over he past couple of weeks after posting Highs not seen since late October 2008. The Pair has formed a beautiful CUP formation. The last couple of days we have seen price fail to break above 1666 which happens to be Resistance 1 on  Monthly Pivot. Notice how The RSI has posted lower highs as price has been moving sideways recently – Loss of Momentum ??? With this sideways momentum – it has formed another squeeze pattern. The Pair is trading close to the Major Trend -line. If we are to see GBP test those highs posted earlier this month we would need confirmation in Price – either an strong candlestick engulfing pattern or a Hammer – or Bullish harami pattern. Some sign to let us know – HEADS UP – we have a direction confirmation. Looking at our Indicator – RSI has just broken through the 50% line. Negative sign. IF we see a CLOSE BELOW this MAJOR trend-line , then this will indicate to us the BULLS have left the party and the BEAR have arrived to take over. GOT TO HAVE A CONFIRMATION SIGNAL FIRST BEFORE WE TAKE A POSITION.

Powered by Metastock

Bottom Left handside – USDCHF

We have seen USD loss ground to the CHF over the last couple of months BUT we have seen USD  test a strong support line (going back to late part of December 2008) recently and since then pullback to around a resistance area now which is a Monthly Pivot (10920). For the past week USD has battled to break about this area and like the previous two currency pairs form a squeeze. Now RSI  has been trading above the 50% for a number of days -BUT there is not alot of conviction in the signal provided that we have momentum to the upside. USD to be BULLISH would need to CLOSE ABOVE that strong resistance line of 10920 first before we can genuinely see more movement to the upside.

Bottom Right handside – AUDUSD

This brings me to the last chart I’ll be discussing this morning AUDUSD pair. Now with this pair we have seen AUD gain some fair ground over the USD since mid March of this year. Price broke above 50MA and kept going. Right up until now where it has reached a high which is long term support/resistance  posted back in September 2008. Like the other Pairs I spoke about this too we have seen a ‘breather’ take place – we have seen all 4 pairs make up some decent ground in the past months against the DOLLAR. Extend Major Trend, have seen AUD stalled around the 828o area. Another squeeze setup has presented itself. Have we seen the Investors taking a breather and taking profits after this long Bull run !?!?! Could we see the AUD continue in the same direction it started earlier this year. In this case AUD would have to find support at 7767 ( Pivot point). A break above the previous High at 8828 would be preferable – BUT we can still make some decent money ‘intra day’ between now and then – as long as we have valid confirmation that it is going in your favour. RSI is approaching 30% line – over sold indication ?? HEADS UP !!!

I hope this has been of help to some of you. Keep your trading style simple. Build a picture as you study your charts !! This way you are likely to make less mistakes long term !!! Simplicity is Key in trading – Trade what the Charts is telling you……..

Until next time – Trade Serenely

EURUSD – DAILY CHART SETUP

Morning All,

Please refer to the chart posted below for an update on EURUSD setup.

Notice how the Pair has formed a squeeze pattern on a DAily chart time frame. We are expecting a ‘breakout’ wither way. My signals are still pointing to a ‘bullish’ move – BUT we have to see the Breakout and close have to happen to the upside for this to be set in concrete. Either way – The next candlestick move would have to ‘close’ above or below the squeeze. Then we would work out our entry and stop loss, and trade accordingly.

Chart Setup on EURUSD 22nd June 2009 / Powered by Metastock

It would be best to have at a 4hr time-frame or hourly to look for any ‘indication’ that we are seeing a ‘bullish or bearish’ indicator to help us get a idea what the direction could be.

Forex News expected out on Monday 22nd June 2009

Evening All,

Just wanted to post the expected news for Monday 22nd June 2009. It is a quite day comparing it to what we have seen this week.

There is one to watch. The German Ifo Business Climate expected out at 9:00am GMT.

Chart provided by Forex Factory

This survey is highly respected due to it’s large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release.

Why Traders Care : It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;

Derived Via: Survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months;

I’d like to end off by saying I hope all of you have a brilliant weekend with family and friends.

Take care until next time